Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-09 01:36Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $4000 per ounce, is driven by various factors including geopolitical risks, market uncertainty regarding U.S. monetary policy, and increased demand from central banks and retail investors [3][10][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - A notable trend in gold jewelry sales is observed, with customers gravitating towards either small pieces or larger items over 30 grams, leading to a sales increase of over 30% year-on-year during the National Day holiday [3]. - The expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is anticipated to enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold, as the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases [5][10]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has created uncertainty in economic data releases, further fueling demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][12]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months, reaching 74.06 million ounces by the end of September 2025, indicating a cautious approach to reserve optimization [6][8]. - Global central banks have maintained high levels of gold purchases, with significant contributions from countries like China, Poland, Singapore, and India, reflecting a shift towards gold amid concerns over the dollar's dominance [8][9]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 from $4300 to $4900, citing sustained inflows into ETFs and central bank purchases as key drivers [8][9]. Group 3: Economic and Political Influences - Political changes in France and Japan have heightened concerns over fiscal risks, contributing to the recent rebound in gold prices [5][10]. - Historical patterns show that gold prices tend to rise during periods of economic and political stress, with the current situation mirroring past crises [10][12]. - The shift in global monetary policy and geopolitical dynamics is prompting a reevaluation of gold's role as a store of value, suggesting a potential new order in the financial landscape [16].