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国泰海通:给予十月稻田“增持”评级 目标价15.49港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-09 01:35

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company, October Rice Field (09676), is rated as "Buy" due to its strong competitive advantages and potential for market share growth in the mid-to-high-end rice segment [1] - The report anticipates the company's EPS for 2025-2027 to be 0.57, 0.71, and 0.86 RMB respectively, with a target price of 15.49 HKD for 2025 based on a 25x PE ratio [1] Group 2 - The industry is experiencing slow growth but a clear trend towards upgrading, with stable demand for rice and kitchen foods despite little change in the domestic population [2] - The market for pre-packaged rice is highly fragmented, with a CR5 of only 14%, while October Rice Field holds the top market share in premium and Northeast rice [2] - The company has established strong competitive advantages, including significant single product advantages, active category expansion, and industry-leading omnichannel fulfillment capabilities [2] Group 3 - The company's revenue and adjusted net profit for 2024 are projected to be 5.745 billion and 349 million RMB, respectively, with CAGRs of 25.35% and 12.1% from 2020 to 2024 [3] - Revenue from rice, grains & beans, and other products for 2024 is expected to be 4.014 billion, 470 million, and 446 million RMB, with CAGRs of 21%, 6%, and 50% respectively [3] - Corn is expected to see explosive growth, reaching 815 million RMB, opening a second growth curve for the company [3] - The company has strong channel adjustment capabilities, leveraging both online and offline sales channels, with projected revenues of 3.599 billion and 2.147 billion RMB for online and offline sales in 2024, respectively [3]