市场明显回暖 钢材价格有望小幅上涨

Domestic Market - During the National Day holiday, the real estate market showed signs of recovery, with increased promotional efforts from property developers leading to higher transaction volumes in several cities [1] - In cities like Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Wuhan, developers offered special discounts and subsidies, resulting in significant increases in visitor and transaction numbers [1] - For instance, in Shenzhen's Longgang District, visitor and transaction volumes surged by 40% to 50% compared to normal days [1] - In Shanghai, a property in Qingpu District saw over 200 groups of potential buyers and a transaction volume of 63 million yuan in the first four days of the holiday [1] - In Guangzhou, a new project sold over 200 units on its opening day and continued to attract significant interest, with over 1,000 groups visiting [1] - Overall, the sales area of real estate in Hubei province increased by over 10% year-on-year during the holiday [1] - However, financing for property companies remains constrained, with a year-on-year decline of 35% in the third quarter [1] Overseas Market - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October is approximately 94.1%, with a very low chance of maintaining current rates [2] - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on medium and heavy trucks imported from other countries starting November 1, 2025, which is expected to have a limited impact on China's heavy truck exports [2] - The EU plans to reduce steel import quotas and impose a 50% tariff, but this is also expected to have a limited effect on China's steel exports, which primarily go to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America [2] Spot Market - During the National Day holiday, domestic construction steel prices remained stable, with Tangshan steel billet prices stabilizing at 2,950 yuan per ton [3] - Major steel mills maintained stable rebar prices, while trading activity was limited due to cautious sentiment among traders [3] - Despite some steel mills conducting maintenance, overall steel supply, particularly for plates, remains high [3] - Steel exports increased, which may help alleviate the domestic oversupply situation [3] - The Singapore iron ore swap price saw a slight increase during the holiday, suggesting a potential for a modest rise in steel prices post-holiday, followed by fluctuations [3]