尽管关税飙升，美国2025财年的预算赤字依旧高达1.8万亿美元，几乎没有减少

Core Points - The U.S. budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 remains high at $1.8 trillion, showing minimal reduction compared to the previous year [1] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported that federal government total revenue increased by $308 billion (6%), while total spending also rose by $301 billion (4%) [1] - Interest payments on public debt exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in history, significantly impacting overall spending [1] - The deficit is projected to be approximately 5.9% of GDP, posing challenges for the Treasury Secretary who aims to reduce this to 3% by 2028 [1] Revenue and Expenditure Analysis - Tariff policies under the Trump administration contributed significantly to revenue growth, with tariff income expected to reach $195 billion in 2025, up from $77 billion in the previous fiscal year [2] - Despite the increase in tariff revenue, overall spending growth, particularly in social security benefits and debt interest, overshadowed this revenue boost [2] - Social security spending increased by $121 billion (8%) due to cost-of-living adjustments and new legislation effective January 2025 [2] - Education department spending saw a drastic reduction of $234 billion (87%) due to changes in student loan accounting and administrative cuts [2] Corporate Tax Revenue Impact - Corporate income tax revenue is projected to decline by 15% compared to 2024, negatively affecting overall fiscal health [3] - This decline is attributed to a tax reform allowing larger pre-tax deductions for certain investments, reducing estimated tax payments [3] - Some tax revenues originally due in 2023 have been postponed to 2024, further contributing to the decrease in corporate tax revenue for 2025 [3] Outlook on Deficit Management - Despite the high deficit level, which is rare during non-crisis periods, the Treasury Secretary remains optimistic about continued growth in tariff revenue [4] - The Secretary anticipates that tariff revenue could reach an annualized amount of $500 billion by the end of the year [4] - However, potential legal challenges to tariff policies could pose significant risks to revenue projections, with the Secretary acknowledging the potential negative impact of unfavorable court rulings [5]