Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) 智通财经网·2025-10-09 02:21Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities suggests that the fourth quarter will see concentrated macro policies, with low baseline fundamentals and low market expectations, indicating potential stock price increases due to any changes in supply and demand, particularly in sectors sensitive to policies like liquor and the catering supply chain (pre-made dishes) [1] Market Review - The food and beverage sector has underperformed this year due to insufficient domestic demand and consumer confidence, with A-shares and H-shares rising by 1% cumulatively, while A-share food and beverage (Shenwan) fell by 4.7%, significantly lagging behind the CSI 300 (+17.9%); H-share food and beverage (Shenwan) increased by 29.5%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index (+34%) [2] Category Differentiation - Since the second quarter, liquor stocks have been under pressure due to policy impacts, with Kweichow Moutai and liquor (excluding Kweichow Moutai) down by 5.5% and 5.8% respectively since the beginning of the year; however, mass-market products show signs of improvement, with leading brands rising by 13.4% in the first three quarters, and beverages (e.g., Nongfu Spring, Dongpeng Beverage) and snacks (e.g., Wei Long, Yanjinpuzi) performing the best [3] Reform Empowerment - Many companies have actively engaged in channel, product, and organizational reforms this year, leveraging digitalization to reshape the industry ecosystem, with emerging trends such as maternity subsidies, coconut water, sugar-free tea, konjac snacks, sparkling yellow wine, and new models like Zhenjiu Lidu and Jiu Gui Jiu's Free Love, indicating enhanced bottom signals for the sector [4] Outlook for Q4 - As the impact of liquor consumption policies from the second quarter gradually weakens, demand in liquor and catering supply chains is expected to enter a recovery phase, with positive signals emerging from the supply side, such as a consensus among liquor-producing regions on slowing production; Guosen Securities believes that key indicators like the price of Feitian Moutai will show improvement in the fourth quarter [5]