国庆新房二手房走势分化，这些城市成 "黑马"

Core Insights - The National Day holiday period serves as a critical window for property viewing and purchasing, with market data indicating a "year-on-year cooling and month-on-month differentiation" in housing demand across various cities [1][16]. Overall Market Performance - The overall housing market saw a 10% year-on-year decline in average daily housing search heat for both new and second-hand homes during the first five days of the National Day holiday, reflecting a continued downward trend in the market [2][16]. - In contrast, the new housing market experienced a slight month-on-month increase of 4% in search heat, driven by promotional activities from developers and the release of pent-up demand from returning residents [2][16]. - The second-hand housing market, however, saw a month-on-month decrease of 1% in search heat, primarily due to the holiday's impact on viewing behaviors [4][16]. City-Level Performance - There is a significant disparity in housing search heat across different city tiers, with core cities' surrounding third-tier cities showing notable increases in new housing search heat [6][7]. - The top three cities with the highest month-on-month increases in new housing search heat include Huizhou (15.32%), Luoyang (13.83%), and Nantong (12.16%) [8]. - Conversely, cities like Harbin and Guiyang experienced slight declines in new housing search heat [11]. Second-Hand Housing Insights - The second-hand housing market's heat is concentrated in new first-tier cities and key provincial capitals, with Jinan (13.58%) and Guangzhou (9.80%) leading the month-on-month increases [12][13]. Market Trends - The data from the National Day holiday not only reflects short-term market conditions but also reveals deeper trends, indicating that the overall market remains in a downward cycle with no significant signs of recovery [16]. - The holiday period continues to serve as a window for assessing real demand potential in cities that effectively leverage returning residents and optimize transaction experiences [16]. - The phenomenon of "regional differentiation" has become the norm, characterized by a split between core and peripheral cities, as well as north-south variations in housing demand [17].