到了2030年，200万的房产大概值多少钱？曹德旺与马光远看法一致

Core Viewpoint - The domestic real estate market in China is transitioning from a period of rapid growth to a phase of adjustment, with significant price declines observed since the second half of 2021 [1][3]. Market Trends - After a peak in 2021, where average housing prices surged by 5.5 times since 1998, the market has shown signs of fatigue, with first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai experiencing price drops of over 30% in some areas [1][3]. - As of August 2024, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities fell by 0.71% month-on-month, marking the 28th consecutive month of decline [5]. Government Response - In response to the declining market, local governments have implemented measures such as relaxing purchase and sale restrictions, and banks have lowered mortgage rates to historical lows, with down payment ratios reduced from 30% to 20% [3][5]. Market Sentiment - Despite government interventions, the market remains subdued, with a significant increase in second-hand property listings, indicating mounting downward pressure on prices [5]. - Notable figures like entrepreneur Cao Dewang suggest that property values will decrease significantly by 2030, urging homeowners to sell excess properties to avoid future losses [7][12]. Expert Opinions - Independent economist Ma Guangyuan concurs with Cao's view, stating that the era of real estate as the best investment in China has ended, and prices will revert to levels more aligned with residents' income [10][12]. - Both experts predict that properties currently valued at 2 million yuan may see substantial depreciation by 2030, aligning with local income levels [12]. Underlying Factors - The loss of the "wealth effect" in the housing market is evident, as prices have been in decline since 2021, leading to a shift in buyer psychology from speculation to caution [12][13]. - There is a significant disparity between housing prices and income levels, with ratios in second-tier cities ranging from 20 to 25, and over 40 in first-tier cities, indicating a bubble that is unsustainable [13]. - The impact of the pandemic has led to reduced incomes and a more rational approach to home buying, with potential buyers reassessing their financial situations [13].