Core Insights - The overall real estate market returned to a low point in Q3 2025, with both new home supply and demand declining year-on-year and month-on-month. New home supply decreased by approximately 20% in Q3, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 18% [1][2]. - New home transactions showed a steady decline, entering a period of weakness after the mid-year surge, despite favorable policies introduced in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen since August [1][9]. - The forecast for Q4 suggests a potential stabilization in new home transactions, with an expected year-on-year decline of around 10% for the entire year [1][28]. Supply Analysis - In Q3 2025, the supply of new homes in major cities saw a seasonal decline, with a year-on-year drop of 21% in July and August, and a cumulative decline of about 20% for the first three quarters [2][5]. - The supply in first-tier cities showed relative resilience, with a total supply area of 529 million square meters in Q3, a month-on-month decline of 15% but a year-on-year decline of only 3% [7]. - Second and third-tier cities continued to face pressure, with some cities like Chengdu and Tianjin showing signs of stabilization, while others like Wuhan and Nanjing experienced significant declines [7][15]. Transaction Insights - New home transaction volumes reached a near five-year low, with a total transaction area of 2,867 million square meters in Q3, reflecting an 18% year-on-year decline [9][12]. - The first-tier cities maintained a slight positive growth of 4% year-on-year in cumulative transactions, while second-tier cities saw a decline of around 10% [12][14]. - The second-hand housing market showed a relative stability with a cumulative transaction area of 5,225 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2% [17][20]. Price Trends - In August 2025, the sales prices of new residential properties in first-tier cities continued to decline month-on-month but showed a narrowing year-on-year decline, indicating a trend of marginal improvement [22][23]. - The price index for new homes in first-tier cities decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, with Shanghai experiencing a 5.9% increase, while other cities like Beijing and Guangzhou saw declines [22][27]. - The overall price trends suggest that while first-tier cities maintain higher price points, second and third-tier cities are experiencing a steady price correction due to previous oversupply [27][28]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to see a weak recovery in Q4 2025, driven by favorable policies and increased marketing efforts from real estate companies, although the overall transaction volume is likely to remain below previous highs [1][28]. - The differentiation between cities and projects will continue to intensify, with core urban areas likely to maintain higher demand while peripheral projects may struggle [29]. - The second-hand housing market is anticipated to attract more first-time buyers due to price advantages, further impacting the dynamics between new and second-hand homes [29].
三季度商品住宅新增供应下降15%，深昆长等一二线逆势增长
3 6 Ke·2025-10-09 02:54