金荣中国：金荣中国：贵金属投资之如何使用平均方向移动指标

Market Overview - International gold prices saw a significant increase on October 8, opening at $3966.32 per ounce, reaching a high of $4050.63, a low of $3963.10, and closing at $4045.60 [1] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes revealed a struggle among committee members to address conflicting economic signals, particularly between persistent inflation and a weakening labor market [3] - Most officials indicated that further easing of monetary policy may be appropriate for the remainder of the year, with 10 officials suggesting two more rate cuts and 9 believing there would be one or fewer [3][4] - Discussions highlighted a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, with factors such as reduced net immigration and changes in labor participation affecting labor supply [4] - The Fed officials expect inflation to remain high in the short term but gradually return to 2% under appropriate monetary policy, with some indicating that tariff-induced cost increases could lead to higher prices [5] Economic Context - IMF President Georgieva noted that the Fed may need to balance between slowing economic growth and stagnant inflation, emphasizing the resilience of the U.S. economy with a 3.8% growth in Q2 [6] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has seen the Senate fail to pass funding bills, prolonging the impasse and creating uncertainty in fiscal policy [7] Geopolitical Developments - A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas is set to take effect, which may influence market dynamics and investor sentiment [8] Gold ETF Holdings - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 1.43 tons, bringing the total to 1014.58 tons [9] Market Expectations - The probability of the Fed maintaining rates in October is at 5.9%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is at 94.6% [9]