薛鹤翔：降息预期驱动大宗上涨——国庆假期全球市场动态

Domestic Macro - The domestic macroeconomic landscape shows distinct characteristics in consumption and industrial policy, with a shift towards rational travel decisions during the National Day holiday, as overall travel intensity was lower than during the May Day holiday [1][6] - The tourism market is evolving towards diversification and personalization, with traditional attractions losing some popularity while niche tourism options like "inter-provincial border tours" and "border tourism" are gaining traction [1][6] - The expansion of visa-free travel has stimulated outbound tourism, reflecting the release of domestic residents' international travel demand and the positive effects of national tourism opening policies [1][6] Foreign Macro - During the National Day holiday, the U.S. ADP employment and services PMI data were weaker than expected, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the expected increase of 51,000 [1][13] - The U.S. services PMI fell to 50, indicating a slowdown in business activity and new orders, which may impact global market sentiment [1][13] Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a historical high, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, driven by concerns over U.S. debt sustainability and demand for risk hedging against the dollar [2][17] - The overall trend for gold remains bullish, supported by expectations of continued market easing following the initial interest rate cuts [2][17] Oil Market - International oil prices fluctuated during the holiday, ultimately stabilizing around pre-holiday levels, influenced by ongoing supply increases and insufficient demand [2][18] - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day, reflecting a focus on maintaining market share amid competitive pressures [2][18] Film Industry - The National Day box office exceeded 1.5 billion yuan, with several films surpassing 100 million yuan in ticket sales, indicating a strong recovery in cultural consumption [8] - The diversity of content, including various genres, has driven demand, with family-oriented films performing particularly well [8] Industrial Policy - The release of growth stabilization plans by seven major industries before the holiday marks a significant shift towards quality and efficiency improvement rather than mere scale expansion [11] - The focus on supply-demand balance and the integration of artificial intelligence aligns with current technological trends, promoting high-end and intelligent industrial development [11] Overall Economic Outlook - The current domestic macroeconomic environment is characterized by structural optimization and diversified demand in consumption, alongside a commitment to high-quality development in industrial policy, which together create a favorable environment for economic growth [12][12] Key Commodity Trends - LME copper prices rose by 2.85% during the holiday, driven by supply concerns from Indonesia and ongoing tightness in the copper market [19] - LME zinc prices increased by 3.7%, supported by declining inventories and stable processing fees [19] - LME aluminum prices continued to rise, reflecting a tight supply-demand balance and positive macro sentiment [20] Agricultural Products - U.S. cotton prices weakened during the holiday due to market information delays caused by the government shutdown, while domestic cotton prices face pressure from new crop expectations [21] - International sugar prices are expected to remain weak due to increased supply from Brazil, while domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory levels [22] Shipping Industry - During the National Day holiday, shipping rates increased significantly, with major shipping lines raising prices for the second half of October [48] - The market is expected to enter a phase of competition for the year-end peak season, with attention on the impact of shipping rate adjustments [48]