矿业ETF（561330）大涨8%，年内涨幅较有色超额10%

Core Viewpoint - The mining ETF (561330) has surged over 8% today, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 90%, outperforming the non-ferrous sector by over 10% [1] Group 1: Factors Driving Mining Sector Surge - Multiple factors are driving the significant rise in the mining sector: - The U.S. government may face a "shutdown" and layoffs, leading to a spike in market risk aversion, coupled with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, causing spot gold to surpass $4000 per ounce, setting a new historical high [2] - Frequent disruptions in overseas copper mines this year have led to a persistent tight supply-demand balance, boosting copper prices [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is clarifying capacity reduction controls, with a recovery in lithium battery demand, alongside expanding energy storage needs and breakthroughs in solid-state batteries, enhancing demand for energy metals [2] Group 2: Comparison of Mining ETF and Non-Ferrous ETF - The mining ETF (561330) has outperformed the non-ferrous ETF by approximately 10 percentage points year-to-date, as of September 30, 2025 [3] - The mining ETF has a more concentrated representation of leading stocks, with the top ten constituents accounting for 57.51% of the index, compared to 48.68% for the non-ferrous index [3] - The mining index has a higher proportion of copper, gold, and lithium at 51.8%, compared to 46.5% in the non-ferrous index, making it more sensitive to favorable catalysts for these metals [5] Group 3: Future Outlook for the Mining Sector - The mining sector is expected to continue performing well, driven by: - The Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, which benefits gold prices amid increasing macroeconomic uncertainties and a global trend towards "de-dollarization" [6] - Industrial metals are likely to benefit from the economic stimulus associated with rate cuts, potentially increasing actual consumption demand for copper and aluminum [6] - Energy metals are poised for growth due to policy, demand, and technological advancements, particularly in solid-state battery development and energy storage needs, which are expected to remain robust [6][7]