突破4000美元，本轮黄金牛市还能走多远？

Core Viewpoint - The COMEX gold price has reached a historic high of $4000 per ounce, reflecting a significant increase of over 47% year-to-date, driven by shifts in U.S. monetary policy and rising geopolitical risks [1][2][8] Market Trends - Gold prices began the year at $2758 per ounce, experienced a three-month adjustment, and surged again in August, with September recording a monthly increase of 10.57%, the largest in the current cycle [1] - The Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy, including a rate cut in September, has been a key driver of the recent gold price rally [1][3] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving Israel and Qatar, have heightened global risk aversion, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - Record inflows into global gold ETFs in Q3 2025 indicate a growing recognition of gold's role as a risk hedge [2] Central Bank Activity - Central banks have been net buyers of gold for several years, with a notable increase in purchases from 2020 to 2024, indicating a strategic shift in reserve management [3][7] - The share of gold in global reserves is expected to rise, with 76% of surveyed central banks anticipating an increase in gold's proportion in their reserves over the next five years [3] Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index has weakened, with a 9% depreciation year-to-date, contributing to concerns about the dollar's creditworthiness [2][7] - The rapid increase in U.S. money supply since 2020 has led to significant debt accumulation, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy [4][5] Investment Demand - Global gold investment demand reached 477 tons in Q2 2025, a 78% year-on-year increase, with strong demand for gold bars and coins [5] - The combined net purchases by central banks and inflows into gold ETFs have significantly supported gold prices, contributing over 70% to the price increase [5] Future Outlook - The pricing dynamics of gold are evolving, transitioning from a model primarily driven by real interest rates to one influenced by central bank purchases and speculative demand [6] - Major investment banks have raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs projecting a target of $4900 per ounce by December 2026 [7] Strategic Implications - Investors are advised to adopt a differentiated strategy based on their investment horizon and risk tolerance, with short-term traders focusing on price fluctuations within the $3800-$4200 range [8] - Long-term holders of physical gold should view it as a strategic asset for hedging against currency credit risk, while aggressive investors may find opportunities in gold-related equities and ETFs [8]