美联储9月会议纪要曝光内部分歧，政府停摆令美联储陷入数据盲区

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is leaning towards further interest rate cuts, with most participants in the September meeting believing that easing monetary policy may be appropriate for the remainder of the year, although there are still internal disagreements regarding the timing and pace of future cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4% and 4.25% due to signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market [2]. - There is a classic dilemma facing the Federal Reserve: the potential weakness in the labor market versus persistently high inflation, leading to significant internal disagreements on the timing and pace of future rate cuts [2][3]. - Some officials expressed reservations about the September rate cut, suggesting that maintaining the rate could also be justified given that recent indicators did not show a sharp deterioration in the labor market [2]. Group 2: Economic Data and Government Shutdown - The U.S. federal government shutdown on October 1 has resulted in a lack of timely releases of key economic data such as non-farm payrolls and inflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process for the upcoming meeting on October 28-29 [4]. - The shutdown may lead to a significant increase in the risk of misjudgment for the Federal Reserve, as it will have to rely on scattered private data and feedback from businesses [4]. - Market expectations currently fully price in a rate cut at the October meeting, with a 90% probability of another cut in December, influenced by potential job losses and economic output declines due to the government shutdown [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts from Tianfeng Securities believe that the government shutdown has increased expectations for two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, as it could negatively impact employment and GDP [5]. - The shutdown creates a "black box" for economic data, amplifying uncertainty and affecting market expectations regarding the economy [5]. - Concerns over rising debt and interest pressures are eroding the growth potential of the U.S. economy, with current debt rates around 3.4%, suggesting that a small rate cut may not address the fundamental issues [5].