2030年，现在200万的房产大概值多少钱？王健林与曹德旺观点一致

Core Viewpoint - The future of the real estate market in China is expected to see continued price declines, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, while first-tier cities may stabilize after significant adjustments [8][10][11]. Group 1: Historical Context - The real estate market in China has experienced significant growth since the reform in 1998, with average prices soaring from 2,000 yuan per square meter to a peak of 11,000 yuan, representing a 5.5-fold increase [3]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen saw even more dramatic increases, with prices rising over 20 times [3]. Group 2: Government Intervention - To mitigate drastic price fluctuations, the government has implemented various market support policies, including relaxing purchase and loan restrictions in many cities [6]. - Banks have responded by lowering mortgage rates from 5.8% to 3.2% and reducing down payment ratios to 20% to encourage home purchases [6]. Group 3: Current Market Trends - Since the second half of 2021, the Chinese real estate market has entered a prolonged adjustment phase, with price declines spreading from second and third-tier cities to first-tier cities by 2023 [7]. - In Shanghai, for instance, property prices in central areas have decreased by 30% from their peak [7]. Group 4: Expert Predictions - Industry leaders Wang Jianlin and Cao Dewang predict that the real estate market will continue to adjust, with prices likely to decrease further and align more closely with local income levels [10][11]. - Wang Jianlin suggests that the real estate boom has reached its saturation point after 23 years, indicating a downward trend in prices [10]. - Cao Dewang believes that the era of continuously rising prices is over, and future buyers may find more reasonable prices in the coming years [10]. Group 5: Contributing Factors - The ongoing adjustment in the real estate market is seen as irreversible, with first-tier cities also experiencing price declines, indicating a mid-to-late stage of the current adjustment cycle [11]. - The pandemic has negatively impacted incomes, leading to reduced purchasing power among residents, which may contribute to further price declines even in first-tier cities [11]. - The introduction of 6 million units of affordable housing over the next five years is expected to divert demand from the commercial housing market, further influencing price dynamics [11].