美国2年、日本20年，一线城市的房价何时止跌，情况何时稳定？

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in major Chinese cities is experiencing a prolonged downturn, with prices expected to continue declining due to various economic factors and historical precedents from other countries [2][4][18]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, second-hand home prices are showing negative growth both month-on-month and year-on-year, with some districts experiencing monthly declines exceeding 2% [2]. - Despite multiple government measures aimed at stimulating the market, such as lowering down payments and relaxing purchase restrictions, there has been no significant recovery observed [2][4]. Group 2: Historical Comparisons - The article draws parallels between the current situation in China and past real estate bubbles in the United States and Japan, highlighting the differences in market responses and recovery timelines [4][10]. - The U.S. real estate market saw a significant decline starting in 2006, with prices not recovering to pre-crisis levels until 2018, while Japan's market has struggled for nearly three decades without returning to its 1990 peak [6][12][15]. Group 3: Key Factors Influencing Future Trends - The duration of the price adjustment in China's real estate market will depend on three critical factors: achieving a "reasonable valuation" for properties, stabilizing market expectations through effective policies, and maintaining a steady influx of population into major cities [20][25][31]. - Current rental yields in major cities are low, with Shanghai's core areas showing a rental yield of only 1.65%, indicating that property prices are still overvalued compared to historical norms [20][22]. Group 4: Future Projections - Projections suggest that while some cities may see a slight recovery in prices by 2028, the overall trend will likely be a slow adjustment over the next 3-5 years, with prices gradually moving towards a more reasonable valuation [31][45]. - The article emphasizes that the market is unlikely to experience a rapid recovery similar to the U.S. due to systemic risk aversion in China's financial system and deeper ties between real estate and public welfare [10][18].