从全球80%垄断到年亏575亿，光伏咋卷成这？“限价限量”能救命吗

Core Insights - The photovoltaic (PV) industry, once dominating 80% of the global market, is now facing severe challenges due to overcapacity and intense competition [1][20][24] - The industry has experienced significant price drops, with battery component prices falling by 60% and silicon material prices by 80% from their peaks [22][24] - Despite leading the global market, major companies are reporting substantial losses, with the entire industry facing a combined loss of over 57.5 billion yuan in 2024 [26] Industry Development - The PV industry has a rich history, with Japan initiating commercial solar panel use in 1994 through subsidies [3] - Germany's introduction of the Renewable Energy Law in the early 2000s catalyzed the industry's first major growth, leading to a 50% annual increase in global solar panel production [4][6] - Other countries, including the US and Italy, followed suit, prompting China's entry into the PV market [8][10] - China's policies, including the Renewable Energy Law in 2015, significantly boosted the industry, leading to a rapid decline in solar power generation costs by 90% since 2010 [10][13] Market Position - China has become the global leader in the PV industry, controlling over 90% of polysilicon supply and 98% of silicon wafer processing [15] - By 2024, China's PV capacity accounted for 80% of the global total, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [20] Industry Challenges - The rapid expansion of capacity has resulted in severe overcapacity and price competition, with many companies resorting to price cuts to maintain market share [18][22] - Major companies like Tongwei and Longi reported losses in the tens of billions, highlighting the industry's profitability crisis [26] Government and Industry Response - The government and industry associations have implemented "price limits" to prevent destructive price competition [28] - Despite these measures, challenges remain in enforcement, as companies often ignore guidelines to secure projects [34][36] - "Production limits" have been proposed to reduce supply and stabilize prices, with some companies beginning to cut production [38][39] Future Strategies - The industry can combat internal competition through technological innovation, market expansion, and enhanced self-regulation [43] - Companies like Longi have achieved significant advancements in efficiency, with record conversion rates for solar cells [46][47] - Expanding into domestic and international markets is crucial, especially as global demand for clean energy rises [55][57] - Adhering to market rules and avoiding harmful low-price competition is essential for sustainable industry growth [59]