Zheshang Securities(SH:601878) Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-10-09 06:13Core Viewpoint - The coal industry has reached a bottom in its fundamentals, with a decrease in volume but an increase in price during the third quarter, leading to improved performance compared to previous quarters [1]. Industry Summary - In July and August, national coal production decreased year-on-year, while coal prices rebounded from their lows. The spot prices for thermal coal, coking coal, and anthracite increased by 7.3%, 16.0%, and 3.6% respectively on a quarter-on-quarter basis, although they still fell by 12.6%, 17.2%, and 11.7% year-on-year [1]. - On the demand side, coal consumption in the power industry decreased by 3% year-on-year, while coal consumption in the chemical industry increased by 15.8% [1]. - In terms of inventory, the total coal inventory of key monitored enterprises decreased by 15.6% year-on-year, and cumulative sales on the supply side fell by 2.3% year-on-year [1]. - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, with the peak season approaching, supply and demand are expected to gradually balance, and coal prices are anticipated to rise steadily, with thermal coal, coking coal, and anthracite prices expected to increase on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1]. Company Summary - The coal ETF (515220), which tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), is the only coal ETF in the market. The coal sector has a high dividend yield, exceeding 5.3% over the past 12 months as of September 30. In the context of declining risk-free interest rates, the investment value of this ETF is highlighted. It is suggested to consider gradually accumulating positions in the coal ETF (515220) to seize investment opportunities in the coal sector [1].