需求端表现尚不及预期 烧碱期货盘面暂以震荡对待

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for caustic soda is experiencing a downward trend, with prices fluctuating and a notable decline in demand from downstream industries [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for caustic soda opened at 2520.0 CNY/ton, with a maximum of 2526.0 CNY and a minimum of 2442.0 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.35% [1] - The overall performance of the caustic soda market is weak, indicating a bearish sentiment among traders [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The expected decrease in maintenance losses for chlor-alkali plants in October may lead to an increase in caustic soda production capacity utilization [1] - Despite the decline in alumina profits nearing the breakeven point, there are no large-scale production cut plans, suggesting that short-term caustic soda demand will not significantly shrink [1] - The logistics disruptions during the National Day holiday have led to expectations of inventory accumulation in liquid caustic soda plants [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - As downstream non-aluminum industries resume operations post-holiday, the inventory pressure on liquid caustic soda plants may ease [1] - New alumina production facilities are expected to come online in Q4 this year to early next year, which could improve supply-demand dynamics in the long term [1] - The price range for caustic soda futures is anticipated to be between 2470-2580 CNY in the near term [1] Group 4: Regional Insights - In Shandong, there is no significant positive demand post-National Day, leading to high operational loads for chlor-alkali enterprises and increased inventory pressure [2] - The overall supply pressure remains due to the commissioning of new facilities, while the demand from downstream sectors is not meeting expectations [2] - The textile and dyeing industries are seeing a slight increase in operating rates, but the overall demand recovery is still dependent on marginal improvements from downstream sectors [2]