高盛宏观大师：美股尚未出现转向避险的信号，资产买家“宇宙不断扩大”

Core Insights - Despite trends in the global bond market, risk assets are not showing signs of shifting towards safe havens, supported by an expanding buyer universe and liquidity overwhelming fundamentals [1][3] Group 1: Market Conditions - Major stock indices remain above key moving averages, with no clear signals for risk aversion [3] - Investor sentiment and positioning are seen as potential energy for market reversal, with many investors underweight due to recent concerns [3] - A significant amount of cash, amounting to trillions of dollars, is parked in money markets, indicating potential buyers are waiting to enter the market [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The current strategy is to continue pursuing risk until a trend change occurs, with momentum trading yielding returns [5] - The largest risk facing the market is the Federal Reserve potentially adopting a less aggressive rate-cutting path than expected [5] Group 3: Upcoming Catalysts - The market is entering a phase termed "Calendar Compression," with multiple key events expected in the coming weeks [6] - Key catalysts include the upcoming earnings season led by the banking sector and the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 29 [6] - Expectations for "consecutive rate cuts and accelerating earnings" are noted, with potential benefits for Bitcoin, gold, and long-duration assets if the U.S. government remains shut down [6] Group 4: Macro Perspective - Attention is drawn to the "four balance sheets" of banks, corporations, consumers, and governments, with a focus on the structural deterioration of Western governments' balance sheets post-2008 financial crisis and COVID-19 [7] - The current market environment exhibits characteristics of a "war economy," with a lack of political motivation for fiscal tightening and a global arms race for rearmament [7] Group 5: Interest Rate Outlook - In the context of a "war economy," the path of interest rates is expected to differ from historical patterns, with central banks likely to cut rates significantly [8] - The potential for yield curve control (YCC) measures is noted, with Japan cited as a current case study [8] - The market's term premium has not shown significant widening, contributing to a less favorable outlook for the U.S. dollar [8]