KVB：美联储内部对于降息依旧充满分歧

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. government shutdown is causing a critical data supply disruption, intensifying the debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the extent of interest rate cuts needed [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Debate - There is a division within the Federal Reserve between those wary of inflation resurgence and those concerned about the pressure on the job market, leading to stark contrasts in monetary policy adjustment paths [3] - New Fed Governor Milan consistently advocates for "aggressive rate cuts," emphasizing the need to return interest rates to "neutral levels" as soon as possible [3] - Milan believes that the current neutral interest rate has significantly decreased compared to a year ago, indicating that the monetary policy is more restrictive now than it was a few quarters ago [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Policy Implications - Milan warns that while the economy appears stable, the risks of economic weakening are accumulating due to the effects of restrictive policies, necessitating timely interest rate adjustments to prevent potential risks from materializing [3] - During the September 17 Fed meeting, the decision-makers projected two rate cuts in 2025, but Milan opposed a mere 25 basis point cut, arguing for a more substantial reduction [3] - Milan has repeatedly called for larger rate cuts, even suggesting the need for five cuts within this year [3] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Constraints - Fed official Schmidt stated that current interest rates only "slightly restrict" the economy, which he views as "just right," emphasizing that inflation remains the core consideration for monetary policy [4] - Schmidt pointed out that as long as inflation exceeds targets, monetary policy must continue to suppress demand growth to create space for supply recovery and alleviate price pressures [4] - Recent price increases in durable goods and services, such as landscaping and electricity, have exceeded the Fed's 2% inflation target, with service prices rising by 3.5% in recent months [4] Group 4: Data Availability and Decision-Making - Milan expressed concerns that private sector data cannot adequately replace official government data, highlighting the lack of essential data for monetary policy formulation during the government shutdown [4] - Despite the data challenges, Milan remains optimistic that sufficient data will be available to support the Fed's next interest rate decision during the meeting on October 28-29 [4]