曹德旺李嘉诚神预言：2025年不买房，五年后会庆幸还是后悔？

Core Viewpoint - The future of the real estate market is uncertain, with opinions suggesting that not buying a house in 2024 may lead to relief rather than regret in five years [6][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since 2021, the real estate market has entered a prolonged adjustment period, with a significant decline in sales. In the first half of 2024, the national commercial housing sales area was 4.79 trillion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 19%, and sales revenue dropped to 4.71 trillion yuan, a staggering year-on-year decline of 25% [3]. - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities has been falling for 27 consecutive months, reaching 14,653 yuan per square meter in July 2024, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.74% [3]. Group 2: Historical Context - The real estate market in China experienced a boom starting from the housing reform in 1998, with average prices soaring from 2,000 yuan per square meter to a peak of 11,000 yuan per square meter in 2021, representing a growth of 5.5 times. In first-tier cities, prices increased from 3,000 yuan per square meter to 60,000-70,000 yuan per square meter, a more than twenty-fold increase [4]. Group 3: Expert Predictions - Business leaders like Cao Dewang and Li Ka-shing predict that housing prices will likely decrease in the future, indicating that the era of only rising prices is over. They suggest that buying a house in five years may be more advantageous [6][8]. - The predictions highlight a potential reduction in housing demand due to lower marriage and childbirth intentions among the younger generation, alongside a long-term adjustment trend in the real estate market that may still have room for price corrections [8]. Group 4: Government Response - In response to the ongoing downturn in the real estate market, various local governments have implemented measures to stimulate demand, including relaxing purchase and loan restrictions, lowering mortgage rates and down payment ratios, and increasing housing provident fund loan limits [9].