Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-09 07:05Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities has given Alibaba-W (09988) a "Buy" rating, projecting revenue growth rates of 3.30% and 11.11% for FY2026 and FY2027 respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits expected to be 121.73 billion yuan and 162.61 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -23.02% and 33.58% [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - For FY2Q2026, the Chinese e-commerce group's revenue growth is expected to be approximately 11.55%, with CMR growth around 10.04%, driven by cross-selling from flash sales and improved advertising efficiency due to AI [2] - The adjusted EBITA for the e-commerce segment is projected to decline by 72.58% to 12.21 billion yuan, primarily due to investments in flash sales, which are expected to incur losses of about 35 billion yuan [2] - Excluding flash sales, the e-commerce business's EBITA is expected to show positive year-on-year growth [2] Group 2: Cloud Intelligence Group - The Cloud Intelligence Group is anticipated to see a revenue growth rate of about 30% for the quarter, with an adjusted EBITA margin of approximately 9%, remaining stable year-on-year [2] - Capital expenditures (CapEx) are expected to remain at a high level as Alibaba actively advances its 380 billion yuan AI infrastructure development [2] - By 2032, the energy consumption of Alibaba Cloud's global data centers is projected to increase tenfold compared to 2022, indicating a significant escalation in computing power investments [2]