续创新高后 黄金价格能否持续上行？

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent U.S. government "shutdown" crisis, heightened expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing global geopolitical conflicts have led investors to increase their gold holdings for hedging, resulting in a continuous rise in precious metal prices. On October 7, COMEX gold futures prices surpassed $4000 per ounce, setting a new historical high [1] - The ongoing "shutdown" has delayed the release of key economic reports such as non-farm payrolls and CPI, significantly increasing market uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy direction. This has intensified market risks and elevated investment hedging sentiment [1][9] - The combination of macroeconomic slowdown, loose monetary policy, and geopolitical tensions is expected to support a long-term bullish trend in the precious metals market [1] Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown - The U.S. government officially began its "shutdown" on October 1 due to a failure to reach consensus on a short-term funding bill between the Republican and Democratic parties. This marks the first government shutdown since January 2019 [8] - The inability to pass a temporary funding bill has resulted in hundreds of thousands of federal employees being placed on unpaid leave, increasing political pressure on lawmakers as payroll dates approach [9] - The ongoing shutdown has created a "vacuum" for the release of critical economic data, complicating market assessments of the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve policy [9] Group 3: Employment Market - The U.S. employment market is showing signs of weakness, with the non-farm payroll report delayed due to the government shutdown. Previous economic indicators suggest a slowdown in job growth, with August's non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs, far below the expected 75,000 [12] - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, indicating a deteriorating job market. Government job losses have contributed to this trend, while private sector job growth remains modest [13] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in response to the weakening employment market, with a 98% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and a 90% probability in December [13] Group 4: Global Gold Demand - Global gold demand has shown strong momentum, with central banks, including China's, continuing to purchase gold as a strategic asset to optimize foreign exchange reserves and hedge against global economic and political uncertainties [14][15] - In Q2 2025, global gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year to 1249 tons, with a significant 45% rise in value to $132 billion. Central banks remain a key support for global gold demand [15] - Gold ETFs have seen significant inflows, with $5.5 billion in August alone, indicating a shift of funds from traditional assets to gold among Western investors [16]