Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Jin Tou Wang·2025-10-09 07:13Core Viewpoint - The liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures market experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 4048.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 5.33% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - New Lake Futures predicts that LPG2511 is likely to stabilize [2] - According to Saudi Arabia's October CP, propane is priced at $495 per ton, down $25 from the previous month, while butane is at $475 per ton, down $15 [2] - The market sentiment is generally pessimistic, but considering freight and discount rates, the import costs for propane and butane in East China are 4300 yuan/ton and 4230 yuan/ton respectively, which may improve the demand for PDH facilities [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - The expiration of the China-US tariff policy at the end of October is anticipated to influence negotiations, likely maintaining the current tariff structure [2] - A potential new fee on Chinese-operated vessels announced by the USTR, set to take effect on October 14, 2025, could impact about 12% of VLGC vessels, leading to increased shipping costs from the US to the Far East, thereby suppressing import demand in China [2] - Post-holiday, there is an expectation of weak market fluctuations until refinery inventory is cleared, after which LPG2511 is expected to stabilize [2] Group 3: Short-term Predictions - Ruida Futures expects short-term LPG prices to trend upwards due to geopolitical conflicts and doubts about OPEC+'s actual production capacity, which may provide support for oil prices [3] - The significant drop in Saudi Arabia's October CP price aims to enhance competitiveness in long-term contracts amid a shift of buyers like India towards US sources [3] - Despite weak downstream chemical demand and high raw material costs, stable procurement from China, Japan, and South Korea, along with declining costs, is expected to support market operations [3]