日元汇率跌破153，“新安倍经济学”预期下，美日汇率冲突重燃？

Core Viewpoint - The economic policy stance of Japan's new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, has sparked market expectations for a "new Abenomics," leading to the yen's exchange rate falling below the 153 mark, reigniting disputes over currency policy between the US and Japan [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Movements - The USD/JPY exchange rate rose to 153, marking a 0.2% increase, the first time since February that it has reached this level, which is considered politically and psychologically sensitive [1]. - The yen's depreciation has been linked to concerns over rising import costs, which could exacerbate household living cost pressures [1][4]. - The yen had previously appreciated about 6% to 147.44 before Takaichi's election, but has since weakened to around 152, narrowing its year-to-date gain to 2.77% [4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Political Implications - The current yen depreciation has revived discussions reminiscent of former President Trump's accusations of Japan "manipulating" its currency for unfair trade advantages [3][5]. - Analysts suggest that Takaichi may adopt a cautious approach to economic policy to avoid straining relations with the US, despite the volatility in the market [3][5]. - Concerns about import inflation are expected to prevent Takaichi from implementing policies that would further weaken the yen, indicating a need for a more realistic policy stance [4][7]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Policy Challenges - Japan's inflation rate has exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three years, with an overall inflation rate of 2.7% reported in August [7]. - Experts believe that interest rate hikes will be necessary to curb inflation, with market pressures likely forcing Takaichi to accept potential rate increases by the Bank of Japan in the near future [7]. - The loss of purchasing power among the public is identified as a primary reason for the ruling party's unpopularity, highlighting the political stakes involved in managing inflation and currency value [7].