原料供应偏紧 沪锡创半年新高【10月9日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of risk assets, particularly in the metals sector, has been strong during the National Day holiday, driven by expectations of overseas liquidity easing and supply concerns in the tin market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - During the holiday, LME tin prices rose by 2.95%, while domestic Shanghai tin futures increased by 2.99%, reaching a six-month high of 287,090 yuan/ton [1]. - The tightening supply of tin, exacerbated by Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, has contributed to the upward price movement [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Indonesia's strict enforcement against illegal mining is aimed at better controlling its tin industry, with the closure of many small illegal mining operations. Major tin smelting companies in Indonesia are expected to remain unaffected due to their stable supply channels [1]. - The Indonesian Tin Exporters Association (ITEA) projects that refined tin exports will rise from 45,000 tons in 2024 to approximately 53,000 tons, indicating that the recent regulatory actions will not significantly impact exports [1]. Group 3: Domestic Supply and Demand - Domestic tin production is set to resume as Yunnan Tin ends maintenance, and most smelting plants maintained normal operations during the holiday. Additionally, transportation of tin from Myanmar is gradually recovering, suggesting a slight increase in overall supply [1]. - Post-holiday, the operating rate of downstream tin processing enterprises is expected to remain stable, although colder weather and lower-than-usual Christmas order volumes may keep the operating rates steady in the fourth quarter [1]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The expectation of high interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is favorable for risk assets, while new regulations in Indonesia to shorten mining quota validity from three years to one year will effectively control tin supply [2]. - The LME inventory has decreased again, and fluctuations in the 0-3 structure indicate ongoing liquidity concerns, which may further stimulate tin prices [2].