矿端担忧笼罩 沪铜重心大幅上移【10月9日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have surged significantly, reaching a nearly 16-month high, driven by concerns over supply and expectations of continued liquidity easing in overseas markets [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The main copper futures contract rose by 4.19% during the morning session, indicating strong upward momentum in prices [1] - The market is increasingly betting on two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year due to a surprising decline in private employment data, suggesting a weakening labor market [1] Group 2: Supply Concerns - The Grasberg copper mine, the second largest globally, faced force majeure at the end of last month, contributing to supply worries [1] - Chile, the largest copper-producing country, reported significant declines in copper production for August, both month-on-month and year-on-year, exacerbating supply concerns [1] - New Lake Futures indicated that the production cuts from the Freeport Indonesia mine are expected to be much larger and longer than previously anticipated, with a reduction of approximately 470,000 tons from Q4 this year to next year, which will shift the global supply-demand balance [1] Group 3: Inventory and Pricing - As of October 9, domestic electrolytic copper inventory stood at 167,900 tons, an increase of 11,200 tons compared to September 29 [1] - Limited arrivals of domestic copper during the holiday period and reduced imports contributed to a decline in inventory levels [1] - Despite a significant price increase post-holiday, the market remains cautious about downstream acceptance of high prices and future inventory changes [1]