专访富达基金：美联储降息周期下新兴市场资产吸引力凸现，中国股市长牛趋势不变

Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have led to a surge in asset prices across various markets, creating an optimistic sentiment, but concerns about the Fed's independence and ongoing trade policies remain [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is currently in a stable phase, with corporate earnings expectations improving since April, projecting a growth of approximately 7% to 10% for Q3 [3]. - The labor market shows signs of weakness but remains balanced, contributing to a stable economic cycle, albeit with slower growth [3]. - The development of artificial intelligence (AI) is positively influencing the semiconductor and chip sectors, which are currently in an upward cycle [3]. Inflation and Trade Policies - U.S. inflation is moderate, and uncertainties surrounding trade tariffs have been decreasing as trade agreements have been reached, leading to lower tariffs than previously expected [4]. - The Fed's recent shift in focus from balancing labor market and inflation goals to prioritizing the labor market indicates a clear path towards further interest rate cuts [4]. Investment Strategies - For U.S. Treasury bonds, while the economic slowdown is not severe enough to trigger a recession, long-term inflation and interest rates are unlikely to decline significantly [5]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have shown strong returns, driven primarily by earnings rather than valuation expansion, suggesting potential for further growth [5]. - The weakening dollar presents an opportunity for diversifying investments into non-U.S. assets, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index outperforming the S&P 500 [6]. Emerging Markets - Emerging market assets, particularly in China and Korea, are becoming increasingly attractive due to favorable economic conditions and improving corporate earnings [6][7]. - China's market is highlighted for its improving fundamentals and attractive valuations compared to U.S. assets, with significant foreign investment interest [8][9]. - Korea's market is also seen as promising due to government reforms aimed at improving corporate governance and the presence of strong tech companies benefiting from the AI cycle [7]. Technology and AI Stocks - The recent rally in U.S. tech stocks, particularly in AI, is supported by the Fed's rate cuts, but concerns remain about high valuations and the profitability of many AI firms [10]. - There is a notable shift towards software applications in the AI sector, with increasing confidence in the profitability of software companies [10][11]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have surged due to the Fed's rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets, with expectations for a structural bull market in precious metals [12][14]. - The relationship between gold and stocks is crucial for assessing investment flows, with a low correlation suggesting continued interest in gold as a hedge against risks [13]. Fixed Income Investments - The global fixed income market is increasingly influenced by fiscal rather than monetary policy, with concerns over sovereign debt leading to rising yields [15][16]. - Credit bonds are viewed as more attractive than government bonds due to low default rates and favorable economic conditions, with emerging market debt also offering appealing yields [17].