2025从关税的“预期链条”怎么看美国经济景气线索？-工银亚洲研究

Core Insights - The report from ICBC Asia Research analyzes the impact of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy on the economy, focusing on inflation, supply chains, economic data, and policy outlook, while outlining economic signals and future trends in the US economy [1][2] Inflation and Price Transmission - As of August, the PPI decreased to 2.6% year-on-year, while the CPI increased to 2.9%, indicating a clearer transmission of inflation effects from tariffs [2][12] - The core goods contributed a 0.4% increase to the CPI, with furniture and transportation products leading the price hikes [2][12] - The inflationary impact is expected to become more pronounced in the fourth quarter as inventory buffers are depleted and companies gradually pass on costs [2][12] Economic Data and Trends - Economic resilience was supported by non-residential investment and consumer behavior, with GDP growth exceeding 1.5% in Q1 and Q2 when excluding tariff disruptions [2][19] - However, there are increasing downward risks as tariff effects become evident, potentially leading to reduced production and consumption [2][19] Policy and Financial Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to implement interest rate cuts in September, facing challenges from economic downturns, high inflation, and policy pressures [2][6] - The US dollar index is expected to trend downward, while the yield curve for US Treasury bonds will exhibit a "bull steepening" characteristic due to conflicting economic signals [2][6] Supply Chain and Inventory Dynamics - Tariff expectations have heightened inventory motivations across supply chains, leading to a temporary "prosperity illusion" in supply-side data [6][19] - Increased imports and production of durable goods have somewhat mitigated the impact of tariffs on end prices, with durable goods shipments rising by 3.1% in the first seven months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [2][33] Consumer Behavior and Confidence - Consumer confidence has declined, with rising concerns about price increases leading to preemptive stockpiling of goods [2][26] - Retail sales in categories such as motor vehicles and furniture have shown significant growth, reflecting consumer behavior in response to tariff expectations [2][27]