日经调查预测：中国经济7-9月增4.6%

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's economic growth is expected to slow down in the second half of the year due to weakened consumer stimulus policies and weak domestic demand, with a projected GDP growth of 4.6% for Q3 2025, down from 5.2% in Q2 2025 [1][4][7] - The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release GDP data for Q3 on October 20, with predictions for actual growth rates ranging from 4.2% to 5.0%, and a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth rate average of 0.7%, down from 1.1% in Q2 [2] - The retail sales growth rate has been declining since reaching a peak in May, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending, which is a key driver of economic activity [4] Group 2 - The real estate sector's downturn is identified as a fundamental reason for the economic slowdown, with weak residential sales leading to falling property prices and a negative asset effect on consumer spending [5] - Companies are competing to lower prices in response to weak domestic demand, leading to excessive competition, termed "involution," prompting the government to implement "anti-involution" policies to curb excessive price cuts [5] - The trade tensions between China and the U.S. have temporarily eased, but some analysts believe this merely postpones uncertainty, as ongoing export declines to the U.S. continue to suppress market confidence [6][7] Group 3 - Economists predict a moderate appreciation of the Renminbi against the U.S. dollar, with an average forecast of 7.12 yuan per dollar by the end of 2025, compared to a previous forecast of 7.22 yuan [8] - The Chinese stock market has seen a surge in AI-related stocks, attracting previously cautious foreign investments back into China, which may further support the Renminbi's appreciation [8] - The People's Bank of China is expected to implement slight interest rate cuts as part of a broader monetary easing strategy, especially in light of recent U.S. Federal Reserve actions [7]