2025年展望：驾驭全球能源格局研究报告

Core Insights - The report "2025 Outlook: Navigating the Global Energy Landscape" by Nextcontinent analyzes key trends, structural changes, and challenges in the global energy sector as it transitions towards sustainability by 2025 [1] Group 1: Global Energy Demand and Supply - Global energy demand is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2024, with electricity demand increasing by 4.3%, driven by high temperatures, electrification, and digitalization [2][15] - Renewable energy sources are expected to account for 38% of the growth in global energy supply in 2024, with solar PV contributing approximately 480 TWh, doubling every three years since 2016 [2][16][17] - Fossil fuels will still dominate global energy supply, accounting for 65% of electricity generation in 2024, but their growth rate is slowing, with oil's share in total energy demand dropping below 30% for the first time in fifty years [2][16] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions like the Middle East and Ukraine, are disrupting fossil fuel supply chains, highlighting the importance of key transit routes [3][43] - The concentration of critical mineral supply chains in China poses new vulnerabilities, with 85-95% of battery components and 80% of solar panels produced there [3][45] - Western nations are responding to these risks by localizing clean energy manufacturing through policies like the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act and the EU's Net Zero Industry Act [3][46] Group 3: Investment Trends - Global energy investment is expected to exceed $3 trillion in 2024, with around $2 trillion directed towards clean energy technologies [3] - Investment in solar energy is projected to surpass $50 billion, while other areas like grid infrastructure and battery storage are also seeing growth [3] - There are significant regional disparities in clean energy investment, with the U.S. reducing its clean energy funding while China and the EU continue to increase their investments [3] Group 4: Technological Innovations - Digitalization and technological advancements are reshaping the energy sector, with AI optimizing energy grid efficiency and predictive maintenance reducing unplanned outages by 35% [4] - The demand for electricity from data centers is surging, consuming between 240-340 TWh in 2022, which is expected to grow rapidly [4] - The energy sector is facing a skills gap, necessitating the development of talent in renewable energy, nuclear energy, and digital grid management [4] Group 5: Regional Insights - In North America, energy demand is declining due to efficiency gains, while renewable energy capacity is expected to triple by 2035 [27][28] - The European Union is rapidly reducing emissions, with a target of sourcing 80% of electricity from renewables by 2030 [29][30] - Asia, particularly China, is the fastest-growing energy market, accounting for over two-thirds of global oil demand growth and leading in renewable energy production [31]