君諾外匯：美联储会议纪要关注流动性，缩表进程或近节点

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's September policy meeting minutes indicate a focus on monitoring money market conditions and assessing whether bank reserves remain at a "sufficient" level to ensure financial stability [1][4] - There are signs that the Fed's balance sheet reduction process may be nearing a phase of stabilization, with liquidity pressures emerging in the market due to increased Treasury borrowing [3][5] Group 1: Liquidity and Market Conditions - The U.S. Treasury's increased borrowing to rebuild cash balances has led to signs of tightening liquidity in the market, with bank reserves in the Federal Reserve system dropping to approximately $3 trillion, the lowest level this year [3] - Higher market interest rates reflect an upward trend in funding costs, indicating a gradual decline in financial system liquidity [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Tools and Strategies - The Standing Repo Facility (SRF) is playing a crucial role in providing short-term liquidity support to financial institutions, helping to stabilize the federal funds rate within the target range [4] - This mechanism acts as a "safety valve" for the market, enhancing the financial system's ability to cope with temporary pressures [4] Group 3: Balance Sheet Management - Since the initiation of quantitative tightening in 2022, the Fed has been reducing its bond holdings, with projections suggesting that by March 2026, the balance sheet could shrink to around $6 trillion, with bank reserves hovering around $2.8 trillion [5] - This level is close to the "sufficient" reserve standard proposed by some officials, indicating limited future space for further balance sheet reduction [5] Group 4: Diverging Policy Perspectives - There is a divergence among officials regarding the ultimate size of the balance sheet, with some advocating for a more streamlined approach that would bring reserves closer to a "scarce" state, while others prefer to maintain a "sufficient" level [6] - This reflects differing views on balancing financial stability and liquidity efficiency within the policy-making framework [6] Group 5: Market Expectations - The market generally perceives the Fed's overall policy direction as cautious and flexible, focusing on maintaining stability in the interest rate target range to prevent systemic risks arising from liquidity imbalances [7]