Group 1: Gold Market - The recent announcement by President Trump regarding the signing of a peace plan between Israel and Hamas may temporarily ease geopolitical tensions, but risk aversion remains high due to the U.S. government shutdown and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate a division among officials regarding future interest rate cuts, which may temper market expectations for significant rate reductions, although a long-term bullish outlook for gold remains [1] - Technical analysis shows a strong upward trend in gold prices, with a focus on the support level around $4017 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Signals from the U.S., Israel, and Hamas suggest the end of the Gaza conflict, which could reduce short-term risks to oil supply disruptions, negatively impacting oil prices [2] - OPEC+ is likely to maintain high production levels, with Russia planning to gradually increase oil output, indicating a stable supply environment [2] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and pessimistic economic outlook may hinder improvements in oil demand [2] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend for oil prices, with key resistance at $64 and support at $61 [2] Group 3: U.S. Dollar Index - The latest dot plot from the Federal Reserve shows a split among officials, with 10 out of 19 suggesting two or more rate cuts this year, while 9 believe only one or none is necessary, which supports a strong dollar [3] - Market expectations for rate cuts are optimistic, with a 94.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October, which may lead to a weaker dollar index [3] - Technical analysis indicates a recent upward movement in the dollar index, with potential for further gains if it holds above the support level of 98.72 [3] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown strong performance with several days of high-level adjustments, indicating bullish momentum [4] - Technical indicators suggest a strong bullish trend, but caution is advised due to high deviation rates [4] Group 5: Copper Market - The copper market has shown a bullish trend with two consecutive weeks of gains, indicating strong demand [5] - Technical indicators suggest a continued strong performance, with a focus on the support level at $5 [5] Group 6: Market Overview - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes reveal significant internal division regarding future rate cuts, with only half of the officials supporting two more cuts this year [6] - President Trump's announcement of a peace agreement between Israel and Hamas may influence market sentiment [6] - The U.S. government continues to face a shutdown following the Senate's rejection of funding bills [6]
百利好晚盘分析：加沙意外停火 警惕金价回调
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-09 09:31