金属狂潮起：有色股飙升背后的四重共振与未来密码

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has experienced a significant surge, with the sector index rising by 8.15% in a single day, driven by macroeconomic factors, supply-demand dynamics, policy support, and capital inflows [2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal index opened above 8380 points and reached a peak of 8664 points during the trading session, with a trading volume of 64.78 million lots and a transaction value exceeding 151.1 billion yuan [2] - Year-to-date, the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metal Index has increased by 49.27%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, with gold and rare earth sectors leading the gains [2] Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - A fundamental restructuring of the supply-demand landscape is identified as the core driver of the price increase, with a supply gap of 590,000 tons for copper and 1.28 million tons for aluminum due to various restrictions and disruptions [3] - Demand is being driven by both traditional and emerging sectors, with infrastructure investment supporting copper and aluminum consumption, while the demand for lithium and cobalt is growing at over 30% due to new energy vehicles and photovoltaic sectors [3] Group 3: Policy and Capital Support - Domestic policies, such as the "Non-ferrous Metal Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan," are focusing on new energy and smart grid demand, while export controls on antimony and rare earths are widening overseas price differentials [3] - The sector has seen a net inflow of over 1 billion yuan in a single month, with leading companies like Zijin Mining receiving increased investment from northbound capital, and the average price-to-earnings ratio in the sector is only 15 times, indicating significant undervaluation [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to have further upside potential, supported by long-term special government bonds and resource supply strategies [3] - New economic scenarios, such as low-altitude economy and humanoid robots, are anticipated to create growth opportunities for titanium alloys and high-end copper materials [3] - There is a potential for a "Davis Double Play" for leading companies in copper, gold, and energy metals if supply-demand gaps continue to widen alongside valuation recovery [3]