今年涨最多的美股板块？不是AI、也不是比特币概念股，是金矿！

Core Insights - The gold mining sector has emerged as the biggest winner in the U.S. stock market this year, with gold prices soaring 52% since January, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, leading to a 129% increase in the S&P Global Gold Mining index, the best-performing sector in the S&P industry indices [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold mining companies are expected to see substantial profits due to rising gold prices, which convert additional revenue into pure profit due to fixed production costs [3] - Notable stock performance includes Newmont up 137%, Barrick up 118%, and Agnico Eagle up 116%, significantly outperforming tech giants like Nvidia (40%) and Oracle (72%) [3][6] Group 2: Historical Context and Investor Sentiment - Despite current market prosperity, seasoned investors recall the industry's past issues during the last gold bull market in 2011, which led to massive profits but also to excessive mergers, rising executive pay, and increased production costs, resulting in a 79% decline in gold mining stocks over the following four years [7] - Investors are cautious about repeating past mistakes, with concerns about potential overreach in capital allocation and executive compensation [7][9] Group 3: Capital Allocation Challenges - Gold mining companies face challenges in capital allocation amidst expected cash inflows, with BMO Capital Markets predicting $60 billion in free cash flow for the sector next year [8] - Recent CEO changes at Newmont and Barrick reflect pressure to improve returns, with suggestions to prioritize dividends over stock buybacks [8][9] - There is a temptation for mergers and acquisitions due to the scarcity of new gold mines, which could lead to a repeat of past behaviors regarding executive compensation [9]