美联储“三把手”威廉姆斯：支持今年进一步降息，并不认为经济处于衰退边缘

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's leadership, particularly Williams, supports further interest rate cuts this year to address potential risks of a sharp slowdown in the labor market [1][4]. Group 1: Labor Market Assessment - Williams highlighted a gradual cooling trend in the labor market over the past year, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a decline in job vacancies and turnover rates [2]. - He noted that the latest indicators for September show a continued moderate cooling in the overall labor market without signs of accelerated deterioration [2]. - The reasons for the slowdown in job growth are complex, involving both reduced demand for new employees and a decline in available labor supply, primarily due to decreased immigration [2]. Group 2: Inflation Outlook - Williams indicated that tariff impacts on import prices have been less severe than previously anticipated, estimating that tariffs have raised inflation by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points [3]. - He observed that core inflation is gradually approaching the 2% target, with improvements in housing costs being particularly notable [3]. - There are no signs of second-round effects from tariffs on inflation, and stable inflation expectations alongside normal supply chain indicators are present [3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Stance - Despite low unemployment and stable consumption, Williams maintains that monetary policy remains moderately tight, reflecting economic performance relative to maximum employment and price stability goals [4]. - He supports further interest rate cuts this year, contingent on economic data developments, with expectations of inflation rising slightly to around 3% and a gradual increase in the unemployment rate [4]. Group 4: Commitment to Independence - Williams defended the independence of the Federal Reserve, emphasizing its importance in achieving economic goals and the responsibility of its staff to maintain this independence [5][6]. - He reiterated that decisions made by the Federal Reserve are based on data analysis rather than political considerations [6].