Bei Jing Shang Bao·2025-10-09 10:58Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is currently in the bottoming phase of its third major cycle in the past thirty years, with significant similarities to the period from 2012 to 2016 [1] Industry Summary - On October 9, the three major indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3933.97 points, up 1.32%. However, the baijiu sector closed at 2241.33 points, down 0.46%, with 18 baijiu stocks declining [1] - Major baijiu stocks experienced the following closing prices and declines: - Kweichow Moutai at 1436.78 CNY/share, down 0.50% - Wuliangye at 121.16 CNY/share, down 0.26% - Shanxi Fenjiu at 190.39 CNY/share, down 1.87% - Luzhou Laojiao at 129.86 CNY/share, down 1.56% - Yanghe at 67.61 CNY/share, down 0.49% [1] Company Performance Outlook - CITIC Securities anticipates that the fundamental bottom for the baijiu industry may appear in the third quarter of 2025, with the second half of this year expected to be the most challenging period for the financial performance of baijiu companies [1] - The earliest potential turning point for sales activity is projected for the first quarter of 2026, influenced by factors such as inventory, pricing, policy impacts, recovery of consumption scenarios, and the financial performance of listed companies [1]