Core Insights - Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 drug semaglutide has become a phenomenon in the global pharmaceutical market, significantly boosting the company's market value beyond Denmark's GDP [1] - The Chinese market presents a vast potential due to the estimated hundreds of millions of overweight and obese individuals, attracting numerous companies to enter the market [1] - A pivotal moment is expected in 2026 when semaglutide's core compound patent in China is set to expire, opening legal and market opportunities for domestic pharmaceutical companies [1] Competitive Landscape - At least eight domestic companies have applied for market approval for semaglutide biosimilars, with over twelve others in critical II/III clinical trial stages, indicating a crowded competitive field [1] - Competition will not solely revolve around price wars but will involve diverse entrants with varying business strategies [1] Traditional Pharmaceutical Companies - Traditional large pharmaceutical companies like Huadong Medicine and Qilu Pharmaceutical are well-capitalized and possess mature R&D, production, and commercialization teams [2] - Huadong Medicine's strategy includes a dual approach of "independent R&D + external introduction," having already received approval for a biosimilar of Novo Nordisk's previous product liraglutide for weight management [2] - This strategy aims to educate the market, build relationships with doctors, and establish a skilled sales team, ensuring a stable cash flow for future competition [2] Emerging Biotech Companies - Emerging biotech firms like Innovent Biologics and Yino Pharma are opting for differentiated competition due to their limited scale and commercialization capabilities [2] - Innovent's collaboration with Eli Lilly on a dual-target agonist drug aims to provide additional therapeutic effects beyond weight loss and glucose control, potentially creating a less competitive niche market [2] - Yino Pharma is focusing on overseas markets in Southeast Asia and Latin America to avoid direct competition in China, following the approval of its core product [2] Diverse Market Entrants - Companies from various backgrounds are entering the market, reflecting its attractiveness [3] - Raw material producers like Jiuyuan Gene and Nuotai Bio are leveraging their cost advantages in active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) to integrate downstream into formulation businesses [3] - Traditional pharmaceutical companies under pressure, such as Ganli Pharmaceutical, are pursuing GLP-1 as a critical transformation direction, with ambitious R&D pipelines targeting competitive products [3] Capital Influx and Market Dynamics - The influx of capital is intensifying market competition, with companies like Zhifei Biological acquiring related products to quickly enter the market [3] - Even companies unrelated to the pharmaceutical industry, such as Sichuan Shuangma, are making unexpected cross-industry moves by acquiring peptide raw material companies [4] - The post-2026 Chinese GLP-1 market is anticipated to experience a "survival of the fittest" scenario, with significant price reductions expected, but the ultimate market structure will depend on how companies navigate their chosen strategies [4]