Head of largest US bank warns of risk of American stock market crash

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of a significant correction in the US stock market is higher than many financiers believe, with predictions of a potential crash within the next six months to two years [1][2]. Group 1: Market Concerns - Jamie Dimon estimates the probability of a market correction to be around 30%, significantly higher than the market's implied 10% [2]. - Dimon highlights various uncertainties affecting the market, including geopolitical tensions, fiscal spending, and global remilitarization [2][3]. - The level of uncertainty in the market should be considered higher than normal, according to Dimon [3]. Group 2: Global Economic Outlook - Kristalina Georgieva, head of the International Monetary Fund, acknowledges the resilience of the global economy but warns of mounting risks and uncertainty being the new normal [4]. - Georgieva cautions that the global economy has not yet faced its full test, indicating potential challenges ahead [4]. Group 3: AI Market Valuations - Concerns are rising regarding a stock market bubble driven by high valuations of AI companies, with the Bank of England noting a growing risk of a sudden correction in global markets [5]. - Dimon acknowledges that some investments in AI may result in losses, but believes that AI as a whole will ultimately yield positive returns [6].