BlackRock(US:BLK) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-09 12:51Core Viewpoint - Despite the rise in gold mining stocks, long-term valuations have not fully reflected the increase in gold prices, with long-term price assumptions lagging behind current spot prices and forward curves [1] Group 1: Gold Mining Companies - BlackRock expects gold mining companies to review their capital allocation plans, anticipating that management will significantly increase dividends to benefit shareholders from rising gold prices [1] - The firm believes that the upward trend in gold mining stocks can continue, as the market's valuation assumptions for gold prices remain significantly lower than the actual prices currently enjoyed by gold mining companies [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The recent increase in gold prices is partly a recovery from past underperformance, serving its role as a hedge against purchasing power [1] - Factors driving this upward trend include central bank demand, retail demand, and recent inflows into physical gold ETFs [1] - Market concerns about inflation eroding purchasing power, government fiscal conditions, geopolitical risks, and uncertainties regarding tariffs further support the upward momentum in gold prices [1] Group 3: Long-term Considerations - There is ongoing discussion among investors and society regarding whether governments can meet large unfunded spending commitments with fiat currency in the long term [1] - The market is increasingly focused on traditional assets viewed as alternatives to gold, such as the US dollar and long-term government bonds [1] - From 2025 onwards, a weaker dollar and declining real interest rates (lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold) are expected to provide additional support for gold prices, with discussions on de-dollarization anticipated to continue [1]