港大：预计2025香港GDP增长2.8%

Economic Growth Forecast - The Hong Kong economy is projected to grow by 2.8% in 2025, aligning with the Hong Kong SAR government's previous forecast of 2%-3% [1] - The economic growth is expected to exhibit a "high first, low second" trend, with GDP growth reaching a peak of 3.1% in the second quarter due to strong export recovery and improved local demand [1] - However, GDP growth is anticipated to decline to 2.7% in the third quarter due to disruptions from extreme weather affecting logistics, retail, and tourism sectors [1] Sector Performance - The report predicts that Hong Kong's trade sector will remain robust, with a projected 6.5% year-on-year increase in goods exports for the fourth quarter, leading to an annual growth rate of 8.4% [1] - In contrast, internal demand is expected to show weaker growth, with private consumption projected to increase by only 3.3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, and fixed capital formation (investment) expected to grow by just 1.1% [1] Employment Market - The unemployment rate in Hong Kong is forecasted to rise to 3.8% in the fourth quarter, up from 3.5% in the second quarter, influenced by increased labor supply and some companies reducing hiring plans [2] - The report highlights ongoing uncertainties for the Hong Kong economy, including geopolitical tensions and the spillover effects of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [2] Future Outlook - Despite challenges, the robust economic growth in the Asian region, particularly in mainland China, along with the Hong Kong SAR government's initiatives to attract investment and expand markets, are expected to provide critical support for the Hong Kong economy [2]