9月会议纪要表明美联储内部分歧加剧

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicate a divided outlook among officials regarding interest rate cuts, with a majority expecting two cuts by year-end, while some anticipate only one or none [2] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - More than half of the 19 officials at the meeting expect two interest rate cuts before the end of the year [2] - There is a noticeable increase in disagreement among Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing and number of rate cuts [2] - If the Fed proceeds with two cuts, they are likely to be limited to 25 basis points each, resulting in a potential federal funds rate of 3.50% to 3.75% by year-end [2] Group 2: Economic Implications - The current federal funds rate is between 4.00% and 4.25%, and the anticipated cuts may not significantly alleviate downward pressures on the U.S. economy [2] - Should the U.S. economy deteriorate further, the primary concern may shift from inflation to economic decline, prompting the Fed to accelerate rate cuts [2] - Accelerated rate cuts could have a more substantial impact on both the U.S. and global economies [2]