Iron ore talks between BHP and CMRG may extend into 2026

Core Viewpoint - The pricing dispute between BHP Group and China's state-run iron ore buyer, China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), may extend into early 2026, raising concerns about the impact on BHP's trading relationships [1][3]. Group 1: Negotiation Status - Negotiations between BHP and CMRG have stalled, leading to potential long-term implications for BHP's operations in China [1][4]. - CMRG has requested major steelmakers and traders to halt purchases of new dollar-denominated seaborne cargoes from BHP, indicating a more aggressive negotiation stance [4]. Group 2: Shipment Impact - Despite the ongoing dispute, BHP has experienced minimal disruption to its shipments to China, having fulfilled most of its iron ore allocation for November and December [2]. - BHP has offered approximately 50 cargoes to international traders and at least one Chinese company following CMRG's order to halt purchases [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - China, as the largest global consumer of iron ore, seeks to assert more control over pricing, reflecting frustrations over its previous lack of influence despite being the biggest buyer [3]. - CMRG aims to enhance China's bargaining power with major suppliers like BHP, Rio Tinto Group, and Vale to secure long-term contracts [4][5]. Group 4: Political Influence - Although CMRG does not have formal control over individual mills or traders, its suggestions carry significant weight due to its political influence [5].