Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-10-09 14:38Core Viewpoint - After the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the price of live pigs has significantly dropped, with futures contracts falling nearly 6% to below 12,000 yuan per ton, contrasting with the rise in gold and silver prices [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The domestic pig price has accelerated its decline over the past two months, with the weighted average price for October futures contracts dropping by 7.9% and September's price falling by 8.4%, marking the largest monthly decline since January [2] - The sales data from listed pig companies indicate an increase in sales volume despite the drop in average selling prices, with companies like Wens Foodstuffs reporting a 2.45% month-on-month increase in sales [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a significant increase in the outflow pressure of pigs, with planned slaughter volumes for October expected to rise by 5.48% compared to September [4] - The demand for live pigs is experiencing a phase of inertia decline, as post-holiday consumption is expected to weaken, leading to limited new orders for slaughterhouses [5] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, with institutions expressing a bearish outlook for pig prices over the next three months due to high levels of breeding sows and slow capacity reduction [6] - The industry is entering a phase of losses, with many companies focusing on cost-cutting and cash flow management, indicating a challenging environment ahead [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the current supply pressure is high, there may be hope for future price recovery as capacity reduction progresses, particularly with the expected decrease in the number of breeding sows [7] - The market is closely monitoring the potential for supply adjustments in the long term, as the current increase in slaughter volumes may lead to a more balanced supply-demand situation in the future [7]