Oil & Refining Gains May Fuel ExxonMobil's Q3: Time to Buy the Stock?

Core Insights - Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) anticipates a sequential increase in third-quarter 2025 earnings by up to $300 million, primarily driven by changes in oil prices and favorable refining margins [1][8] - The company expects its energy products business unit to generate earnings between $300 million and $700 million in the same quarter due to favorable industry refining trends [4][8] Oil & Natural Gas Price Impact - XOM projects a sequential earnings increase of $200 million in Q3 2025 due to natural gas price changes, with potential impacts ranging from a $200 million loss to a $200 million profit [2] - Average WTI spot prices for July, August, and September 2025 were $68.39, $64.86, and $63.96 per barrel, respectively, indicating a healthier pricing environment compared to the previous quarter [3] Production Outlook - ExxonMobil aims to increase its Permian production to 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by the end of the decade, up from approximately 1.6 million [5] - The company has made significant oil and gas discoveries in offshore Guyana, estimating recoverable reserves at 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent [6] Dividend and Stock Performance - XOM's current dividend yield is 3.47%, lower than the industry average of 4.4%, with competitors like BP and Chevron offering higher yields [7] - Over the past year, XOM's stock has declined by 4%, underperforming the industry's composite gain of 1% [8][12] Valuation Concerns - XOM is considered overvalued, trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 7.32X, which is higher than the industry average of 4.49X [14] - Compared to BP and Chevron, ExxonMobil's stock is currently priced at a premium [14] Future Outlook - The third-quarter 2025 results are expected to reflect a weaker oil pricing environment compared to the same period last year, with projected WTI prices declining in the coming years [10][11] - Despite a strong production outlook, the anticipated weakening of crude prices may negatively impact XOM's earnings [11]