楼市“银十”平淡开局 市场分化仍将持续

Core Insights - The overall real estate market in China continues to adjust, with the average daily transaction volume of new homes in 14 key cities dropping by nearly 30% year-on-year during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday [1][2] - Core cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen maintain high market activity, while many second and third-tier cities show a significant decline, highlighting the structural characteristics of the current real estate market [1][2] Market Performance - The average daily transaction volume for new homes in the 14 key cities during the holiday was 449 units, a decrease of 27.2% compared to last year [2] - In Beijing, the average daily transaction volume of new residential properties increased by 52% year-on-year during the holiday, while second-hand homes saw a 73% increase [2][3] - Shanghai's new residential properties experienced a slight increase of 3% in daily transactions compared to last year [4] Policy Impact - Beijing implemented policies to stimulate the market, including relaxing purchase restrictions and increasing loan limits, which led to a 21% month-on-month increase in new home transactions in September [3] - Shanghai's new policies included removing purchase limits for eligible buyers and adjusting mortgage rates, resulting in a 23% month-on-month increase in new home transactions [3][4] - Shenzhen's new regulations led to a 44% month-on-month increase in new home transactions, although year-on-year growth was only 1% due to high base effects [4] Market Differentiation - The market is experiencing increasing differentiation, with over 470 policies introduced nationwide this year, primarily benefiting core cities [6] - Major real estate companies are cautiously acquiring land in core cities, with significant land transaction amounts reported in cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing [6][7] - Analysts predict that new supply in core cities may support new home sales, while cities with limited new projects will focus on inventory reduction [7] Future Outlook - The upcoming policies are expected to maintain a loose stance, aiming to stabilize the market and accelerate the implementation of existing measures [7] - The 20th Central Committee's upcoming meeting may provide direction for the real estate sector's development over the next five years [7]