特朗普关税收入只是杯水车薪！美债利息黑洞难填，财政赤字1.8万亿美元，美国财政拉警报？

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant increase in U.S. tariff revenue due to Trump's tariff policies, but highlights that this revenue is insufficient to address the massive federal budget deficit [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Federal Budget Deficit - The U.S. federal budget deficit for the fiscal year 2025 is projected to reach $1.8 trillion, showing little improvement compared to previous years [3]. - The deficit for the fiscal year 2025 is only $80 billion less than that of 2024, indicating a persistent fiscal challenge [3]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the budget deficit will account for approximately 5.9% of GDP in 2025, a slight decrease from 6.4% in the previous fiscal year [9]. Group 2: Revenue and Expenditure - Total U.S. revenue is estimated to increase by $308 billion (6%) in the fiscal year 2025, while total expenditure is expected to rise by $301 billion (4%) [5]. - Tariff revenue is projected to reach $195 billion in 2025, a significant increase from $77 billion in the previous fiscal year [7]. - Interest payments on the national debt have surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, contributing significantly to the rising expenditure [5][7]. Group 3: Corporate Tax Revenue - Corporate tax revenue is expected to decline by 15% in the fiscal year 2025 compared to 2024, largely due to tax reforms allowing larger deductions for certain investments [9]. - The postponement of some tax revenues originally due in 2023 to 2024 has also contributed to the decrease in corporate tax revenue [9]. Group 4: Legal Challenges - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen expresses optimism about the growth in tariff revenue, but warns of potential legal challenges that could arise if the Supreme Court rules against Trump's tariff policies [11]. - If the court rules unfavorably, the government may have to refund tariffs collected, potentially amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars, posing a significant risk to the Treasury [12].