国金证券：“金九银十”旺季中行业分化的特征与逻辑

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic performance in September remained stable, with marginal recovery in domestic demand driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, but performance varied significantly across industries [1][4] Industry Summary - Upstream Resource and Raw Material Industries: - Upstream resource products benefited from "anti-involution" policies and supply constraints, leading to increased demand and rising prices during the peak season [1][3] - Upstream raw materials like steel and building materials showed limited improvement due to low investment chain sentiment [1][3] - Midstream Manufacturing Sector: - Emerging manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing sectors experienced significant expansion in peak season due to domestic industrial upgrades and recovery in overseas manufacturing and investment activities [1][2][3] - Downstream Consumer Sector: - The real estate market showed weak recovery in transaction volumes, with retail sales of major consumer goods continuing to slow down, indicating insufficient performance during the peak season [1][3] Logic Behind Industry Divergence - The shift in policy focus since July has contributed to the divergence in performance between upstream resource products and downstream consumer sectors, with more emphasis on supply-side optimization and less direct stimulus for demand [2] - Domestic industrial upgrades and economic transformation, along with accelerated recovery in overseas manufacturing and investment, have led to the performance divergence between emerging manufacturing and traditional investment chain-related industries [2] September Industry Information Review - Energy and Resource Sector: - Coal production checks improved supply-demand dynamics, leading to price increases; metal supply disruptions and seasonal demand recovery also contributed to price rises [3] - Real Estate Sector: - Weak recovery in commodity housing transactions, particularly in first-tier cities, with overall real estate investment remaining low [3] - Financial Sector: - A-share trading activity reached new highs, with insurance companies seeing continued growth in premium income [3] - Midstream Manufacturing Sector: - Mechanical equipment sales showed strong growth, with heavy truck sales increasing further [3] - Consumer Sector: - Service consumption showed slight decline, while overall commodity consumption momentum weakened [3] - TMT Sector: - Increased activity in domestic and international AI and humanoid robotics sectors [3] - New Energy Sector: - Strong demand for energy storage, positive production trends for lithium batteries, and potential early mass production of solid-state batteries [3]