3 6 Ke·2025-10-10 00:03Core Insights - The U.S. technology industry is undergoing a significant transformation, with major tech companies shifting from independent competition to collaborative ecosystems, particularly in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector [1] - OpenAI has emerged as a key player in the AI supply chain, completing transactions worth up to $1 trillion this year, including $270 billion with AMD and $500 billion with NVIDIA [1] - The market's reaction to large transactions raises concerns among analysts about the health of the market, reminiscent of the internet bubble [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - OpenAI's partnerships with AMD and NVIDIA create new risks through a cycle of funding where Company A funds Company B to purchase products from Company A [2] - The technology sector now constitutes approximately 35% of the S&P 500 index, a significant increase from less than 15% in 1999 [2] - Since the launch of ChatGPT in October 2022, the S&P 500 has surged by 90%, with AI companies contributing three-quarters of this growth [2] Group 2: OpenAI's Central Role - OpenAI is becoming a central figure in the AI industry, with extensive connections to chip manufacturers, data center builders, and investment groups, making it a critical pillar of the U.S. economy [3] - A failure of OpenAI could have significant repercussions for the entire AI sector and other areas of the U.S. economy [3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Market behavior suggests that every entity involved in transactions with OpenAI is expected to win, despite OpenAI being a cash-negative company [4] - Oracle's stock price volatility following its cloud service agreement with OpenAI highlights the disconnect between stock price increases and fundamental performance [4] Group 4: Financial Mechanisms and Valuations - Concerns arise regarding the financial mechanisms behind OpenAI's deals, with analysts questioning the sustainability of AMD's stock price increase driven by OpenAI's purchases [5] - NVIDIA's extensive investments in AI companies are seen as a potential catalyst for an industry bubble, with calls for more rational valuations based on cash flow [6] Group 5: Optimistic Perspectives - Some analysts remain optimistic, viewing NVIDIA's investment in OpenAI as a strategic decision rather than speculative behavior [7] - The potential emergence of several large ecosystems in Silicon Valley is anticipated, with NVIDIA focusing on the most disruptive players like OpenAI [7]