【华西宏观】轮动的盛宴

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations in September but maintained a bullish trend, with significant adjustments occurring from September 2-4 due to market stabilization expectations and a loosening of tech sector consolidation [1] - Despite the initial downturn, confidence in the bull market remained strong, leading to a recovery in indices, with various sectors showing active rotation, including solid-state batteries, energy storage, robotics, semiconductor materials, and non-ferrous metals [1] Equity Market Insights - The underlying logic of market stability, technology, and anti-involution remains robust, supporting the continuation of the bull market [2] - A new factor, the potential for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, is emerging, although the market is currently experiencing concentrated trading and generally high stock valuations, leading to increased volatility [2] - Investors are shifting focus from index predictions to thematic trading, as evidenced by continued net inflows into thematic and industry ETFs, with a preference for high elasticity themes that are less tied to domestic demand [2] Convertible Bonds - The ongoing performance of underlying stocks suggests upward potential for convertible bonds, driven by a scarcity of returns [3] - While demand for convertible bonds remains, some institutions with lower risk tolerance are adopting a more cautious approach following recent valuation fluctuations, indicating that volatility in convertible bond valuations may become the norm [3] Investment Strategy - The bull market is still vibrant, and focusing on thematic investments is recommended [3] - Key themes include high-growth technology sectors such as AI computing, semiconductors, robotics, solid-state batteries, energy storage, and innovative pharmaceuticals, alongside Federal Reserve interest rate cut-related themes [3] - The strategy suggests active participation in technology sectors while considering exposure to non-ferrous metals benefiting from commodity cycle upswings, with convertible bonds also showing signs of recovery [3]